SpaceX Q3 Earnings Today: Starlink, AI Spending in Focus

The SpaceX earnings report arrives after the closing bell on Tuesday, October 20, 2026 — only the second quarterly report since Elon Musk’s rocket-and-AI company went public in June. Investors are watching closely to see whether SpaceX’s massive AI spending is starting to pay off, and whether Starlink’s growth can keep carrying the business.

SpaceX will release its third-quarter 2026 results after the U.S. market closes, with a live audio-only webcast scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Central Time (4:30 p.m. ET) through the company’s investor relations portal.

What Analysts Expect From the SpaceX Earnings Report

According to data compiled by LSEG, analysts expect third-quarter revenue of about $12.74 billion, a sharp jump from $7.8 billion in the second quarter. The company is expected to post earnings of 14 cents per share — which would be its first profitable quarter as a public company. Some Visible Alpha estimates put revenue as high as $12.84 billion and earnings at 16 cents per share.

Key numbers to watch:

• Revenue: ~$12.74–12.84 billion expected, vs. $7.8 billion in Q2
• Earnings per share: ~14–16 cents expected, vs. a $541 million net loss in Q2
• Starlink connectivity revenue: $4.3 billion in Q2, up 66 percent year over year
• AI capital spending: $15.8 billion in Q2 — investors want to see it converting to revenue

AI Spending Is the Big Question

SpaceX absorbed Musk’s xAI in February, months before its June IPO, transforming the company into a space, AI, and social media conglomerate. Yorkville Ives analysts wrote this week that they see SpaceX stock trading on “how quickly the AI segment is converting contracted compute into revenue,” adding that investors want evidence the AI business can start paying for itself rather than being funded by Starlink’s cash flow.

The spending scale is enormous: Evercore ISI estimates SpaceX’s capital expenditure could reach about $151 billion in 2027, and expects the company to exit 2026 at an annualized revenue run rate of about $104 billion, with AI doing “most of the heavy lifting.”

Reuters has reported that SpaceX is seeking $40 billion to buy advanced Nvidia AI chips — about $10 billion in bank loans and $30 billion in investment-grade debt, with Apollo expected to help lead the deal.

Starlink’s Mobile Ambitions

Starlink remains the company’s steadiest growth engine. Connectivity revenue rose 66 percent to $4.3 billion in the second quarter. On October 8, SpaceX agreed to acquire 800 megahertz of spectrum from Grain Management for approximately $8 billion — a deal requiring FCC approval that would support its Starlink Mobile ambitions and a push toward becoming a traditional mobile phone carrier.

SPCX Stock: 35 Percent Off Its Peak

SpaceX shares have had a volatile four months. The stock rallied after its June IPO debut but has since fallen about 35 percent from its post-listing peak above $225, recently trading around $149. Options pricing suggests traders expect a swing of up to 7.5 percent in either direction after the report.

Despite the pullback, analysts are largely bullish: nine of the 11 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha recommend buying the stock, with an average price target of $279 — implying more than 85 percent upside from recent levels.

Lock-Up Expirations Loom

Adding to the tension, about 1.30 billion shares come free of lock-up restrictions two days after earnings, with another 329 million following on October 24 and roughly 857 million more from the 180-day lock-up group — about 2.49 billion shares in total. Whether early holders sell remains unknown, but the expirations hang over the stock.

A Big Week for Musk Companies

The SpaceX earnings report kicks off a closely watched stretch for Elon Musk’s businesses: Tesla reports quarterly results on Wednesday, October 21. With speculation swirling about a potential Tesla-SpaceX tie-up and Musk’s pledge to give one SpaceX share to every child in the U.S. next year, investors will be parsing both reports — and the earnings calls — for clues about where Musk’s sprawling empire goes next.