A new storm is raising the flood threat across the saturated Southwest through Monday, with forecasters warning of major river flooding in parts of Colorado and dangerous conditions on roads across the region.
The storm arrives on ground that is already soaked, which increases runoff and raises the risk that rivers will rise quickly. In Pagosa Springs, Colorado, a river flood warning is in effect from Sunday evening until Monday evening, alongside a flood watch running from early Sunday morning until late Monday morning, according to weather alerts for the area.
Rain is forecast to fall heavily through Sunday in Pagosa Springs, with hourly forecasts showing rain chances near 100 percent through much of the day and heavy rain expected in the early afternoon. Daily totals for Sunday are forecast at close to 70 millimeters, with winds gusting to around 45 kilometers per hour in the afternoon.
Why saturated ground raises the flood threat
When soil is already saturated, it cannot absorb much more water. Rain that would normally soak into the ground instead runs off into streams, rivers, and low-lying roads, which means water levels can rise faster and higher than they would after a dry spell.
That is the core of the warning for the Southwest this weekend. Forecasters have flagged major river flooding at Pagosa Springs, and the combination of heavy rain, gusty winds, and already wet ground creates a risk of flash flooding in vulnerable spots, particularly near rivers and in areas where drainage is poor.
Residents in flood-prone areas are advised to monitor local alerts, avoid driving through flooded roads, and be ready to move to higher ground if water rises. The familiar safety advice applies with particular force this weekend: it takes only a small depth of fast-moving water to sweep a vehicle away, and floodwaters can hide damaged roads and debris.
What the forecast shows for Sunday and Monday
In Pagosa Springs, rain is expected to continue through Sunday night, with temperatures around 7 to 11 degrees Celsius during the day. Showers are expected to ease early on Monday, with a chance of rain or snow showers in the morning before conditions turn partly cloudy on Monday night.
The river flood warning for the area runs until Monday evening, a reminder that river levels often peak after the rain itself has eased, as runoff from surrounding hills and mountains makes its way downstream. Even after the heaviest rain passes, rivers can remain high and dangerous for hours.
Elsewhere in the Southwest, the same storm system is expected to bring renewed rainfall to areas that have already seen heavy rain in recent days, keeping the flood risk elevated into the start of the working week. Local emergency officials often watch river gauges closely during such events, because a river that looks manageable in the morning can rise several feet by evening as upstream runoff arrives.
How to stay safe during Southwest flooding
- Never drive through flooded roads. Turn around and find another route.
- Keep up to date with local flood warnings and watches from the National Weather Service.
- Move valuables and important documents to higher floors if your home is in a flood-prone area.
- Avoid walking through floodwater, which can be deeper and faster-moving than it looks.
- Charge phones and keep a basic emergency kit ready in case of power outages or road closures.
A wet start to November
The storm marks a wet start to November for the Southwest, a region where autumn storms can bring rapid swings between dry conditions and dangerous flooding. Forecasters will continue to update river levels and warnings through Monday as the system moves through.
For communities still recovering from earlier rounds of rain, the new storm is an unwelcome test of drainage systems, riverbanks, and road networks. Officials urge residents to take warnings seriously, even if their own neighborhood has not flooded before, because saturated ground changes how quickly water can accumulate.
Updates to flood warnings and river forecasts will be issued as the storm develops, and residents should check local weather services for the latest information for their area.
Sources: National Weather Service alerts and forecast data for Pagosa Springs, Colorado, and regional weather briefings for November 1, 2026.