Fed rate decision October 2026 is the main event for Wall Street on Wednesday, with investors widely expecting the Federal Reserve to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at the end of its two-day policy meeting. The decision is due at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at 2:30 p.m. ET, according to multiple market reports.
Stock futures were mixed ahead of the announcement. Futures tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down about 0.2 percent, while S&P 500 futures rose about 0.2 percent and Nasdaq futures rose about 0.4 percent, Investopedia reported. At the opening bell, the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent, the Dow was up 0.1 percent, and the Nasdaq was up 0.4 percent, according to USA Today’s live coverage.
Investors widely expect no change in rates. CME FedWatch gives a 91 percent chance of no rate change, USA Today reported, while CNBC TV18 put the probability at roughly 90 percent. The target range expected to be held is 3.75 percent to 4 percent.
Fed rate decision October 2026: why a hold is expected
The Fed raised rates last month for the first time in three years, Investopedia noted, and it is now expected to pause to assess the effect of that move. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2 percent target by every major measure, USA Today reported.
The Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index was up 3.7 percent over the year in September, according to USA Today. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the Fed has favoured in the past, showed prices up 3.4 percent over the year in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
“Taken together, the data give the Fed more reason to remain vigilant on inflation than to react to one soft jobs report,” USA Today quoted as the prevailing view among analysts. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee told NPR earlier this month that the danger is that inflation is shifting from tariff-related price effects to “old-fashioned overheating of demand,” USA Today reported.
That tension — inflation still above target, but a recent rate hike still working through the economy — is why traders are watching Warsh’s press conference as closely as the decision itself. Any hint about a possible December increase, or about the Fed’s read on jobs and prices, could move markets more than the widely expected hold.
Alphabet and Microsoft earnings after the close
After the market closes, Alphabet and Microsoft are both expected to report quarterly results, in what investors see as a fresh test of artificial intelligence spending and demand. Schwab Network reported that Microsoft, Alphabet and ServiceNow are due after the closing bell.
Alphabet’s third-quarter results are expected at about 4:30 p.m. ET, with consensus estimates cited in market previews putting earnings per share at about $3.02 to $3.04 and revenue at about $127.35 billion to $127.82 billion. Microsoft’s fiscal first-quarter 2027 results are due after the close, with a webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Technology stocks have rallied in recent days, helped in part by Anthropic publicly filing its initial public offering documents, Investopedia reported. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 posted solid gains over the past two days as tech stocks rallied.
Semiconductor stocks also provided support. South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix beat earnings estimates overnight, Schwab Network reported, and US-listed shares of SK Hynix rose nearly 8 percent in premarket trading, according to CNBC TV18. Micron Technology gained about 4 percent, while Arm Holdings advanced about 2 percent.
What else traders are watching
- Oil: WTI crude futures were up about 2 percent recently at $101.75 per barrel, Investopedia reported, while Brent was up about 1.3 percent at $110.91, according to IC Markets.
- Gold: Gold futures fell slightly to about $4,060 an ounce, Investopedia reported.
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin traded at about $81,300, up from a low of $79,300 the previous day, Investopedia reported.
- Treasury yields: The yield on the 10-year Treasury ticked higher to 5.01 percent, Investopedia reported.
- Other earnings: Seagate shares slipped despite a better-than-expected earnings report, while Robinhood stock fell after earnings came in short of Wall Street estimates, Investopedia reported. Boeing fell 10.7 percent on October 27 after a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, according to Dow Jones reports.
For households, the Fed’s decision matters beyond the stock market. The federal funds rate influences borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, credit cards and business loans, even though it does not set those rates directly. A hold would leave those costs near current levels, while any signal of a December hike would push traders to price in higher costs ahead.
Wednesday therefore offers two verdicts in one day: the Fed’s view of inflation and growth, and the tech giants’ view of AI demand. Together, they will help set the tone for markets heading into the final weeks before the midterm elections and the end of the year.